Emerging Risks

An Uncertain World Summarised:

  1. World Health Organisation concerns that COVID-19 is just the start of a recurring cycle of extremely dangerous annual global pandemics,
  2. Run-away weather events fuelling concerns about the environment and planetary health,
  3. Global geopolitical tensions exasperated by misinformation/fake news through social media,
  4. Technology advances impacting traditional business and operating models and associated AI displacement of jobs,
  5. Persistent cybersecurity attacks targeting company secrets and personal data.  

The combined effect of these and other global threats and emerging risk sources is:

  1. Reducing the amount of time available to understand, let alone first predict/anticipate/foresee risks, before they occur,
  2. Increasing the interconnected and interdependent nature of systems and processes, particularly across supply chains and partner ecosystems, creating contagion effects where risk events in one area can connect with others and cause new risks to appear,
  3. Making it harder to quantify risk impacts across "integrated capitals" (financial and reputational) as well as other capitals such as environmental, manufacturing and human.

The Challenge:

Each threat and risk source needs to be monitored and understood. COVID-19 lessons have so far taught us that weaknesses include:

  • Poor risk management capabilities
  • Lack of organisational agility to respond to a crisis
  • Poor business continuity and contingency planning
  • Poor resilience within both the deeply interconnected and independent ecosystems across the globe resulting in systems failures across supply chain and other critical activities

Organisations need to:

  • Better understand current changes in pandemic, weather, geopolitical, technology, consumer, business customer and supply chain conditions,
  • Stress test impact scenarios
  • Highlight response challenges
  • Find a way to receive ‘always-on’ reliable, relevant actionable information to support the quality of thinking and decision making,
  • Create robust response capabilities 

Choices include:

Combining publicly available data and network analytics algorithms to seek to illuminate possible vulnerabilities facing organisations over a period of time, or crowdsourcing trusted front line information infused with third-party data sources for more immediate results.

Using Agile Risk Management (ARM) practices SoluxR delivers results at scale, in less time, at less cost, more effectively and more reliably than other methods.

Immediate results begin to emerge when practical issues are addressed against an internationally proven and accepted technique assessing emerging risks, for example using:

PESTLE criteria scanning:

  1. Political issues and opportunities with potential to increase risk of trade disputes, or relax regulations,
  2. Economic conditions which either support or restrict investment opportunities or influence consumer spending,
  3. Social factors driving unrest or conditions influencing prosperity vis a vis relaxing or tightening regulations,
  4. Technological developments which have the potential to create competitive advantage or undermine traditional business and operating models
  5. Legal frameworks such as those protecting IP, personal data, trade agreements etc. and so making certain countries attractive, or not, for investment,
  6. Environmental rules and regulations supporting or ignoring green, carbon, ESG etc. agendas.

Integrated with:

7.SWOT analysis: Organisational Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats,
8.Impacts across financial, human, reputational, manufacturing, natural and IP capitals

Powerful insights from such automated integrated assessments conducted across large numbers of front-line decision makers have a hugely positive impact on the quality of thinking and decision making.